The first day of free agency is always hectic, but this year it was insane. Nearly every top free agent signed or agreed to sign within the first 24 hours. In the midst of this frenzy, the Celtics were able to re-sign forwards Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder. They were also able to add another big in Amir Johnson. Lets have a look at each of these signings, and look forward to what they mean for the Celtics future.
Swedish born Jonas Jerebko agreed to a 2-year, 10 Million dollar contract with the Celtics. He played 29 games for the Celtics last year after being traded by the Pistons. He's a stretch 4 in the making, and in todays NBA having a big who can stretch defenses to the perimeter is essential. He shot over 40% from deep last year while wearing Celtic green, a solid number for a stretch big. He lacks the size of a traditional power forward, but he still rebounds at an average rate, grabbing about 13% of all misses while on the floor. Jerebko also doesn't sacrifice anything on the defensive end either, in fact the Celtics were much better defensively with him on the floor. Last season with Jerebko on the floor the Celtics defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) was 97.8, a mark which would have led the league. When Jerebko sits, that number shoots up to 105.7, that number would be one of the 5 worst in the league. Those stats may be a little skewed since he only played about 500 minutes for Boston, but even so those numbers are staggering. The point here is that Jerebko shows promise to be a legit NBA stretch 4, and to have that at 5 million a year is a steal, especially with the cap going up next year. The salary cap is projected to make a leap from about 69 Million this upcoming season, to 90 Million next summer. I will gladly welcome back Swedish Larry Bird.
Jae Crowder fits another popular NBA prototype, hes a 3 and D role player. Wings who can shoot 3's to space the floor and defend multiple positions are in higher demand than ever in todays pace and space NBA. Crowder isn't the greatest 3 point shooter, he shot under 30% from 3 for the Celtics last season after being traded away from the Mavs. But his shot isn't bad it just needs some improvement. The C's are betting that with some work in the off season Crowder can become an above average 3 point shooter. Crowder is definitely an above average defender, due to his length and quickness. He guards his own position well, and has shown that he may be quick enough to switch onto guards. 5 years, $35 Million may seem like a lot for Crowder on the surface, but the cap is projected to leap to $90 Million in the summer of 2016. How will Crowders contract look then when its less than 1/10th of the cap? If he improves to become a legit 3 and D wing, then his value definitely exceeds $7 Million a year. DeMarre Carroll just got $60 Million over 4 year to be the player that Crowder might become. I used the phrase "might be" a lot to describe Crowder, but the Celtics are confident in his improvement. This contract will look better next year, and it will be very trade-able in the future.
The Celtics are trying to turn Jerebko and Crowder into legitimate assets for the future. These contracts are bets that Jerebko can become a legit NBA stretch 4, and Crowder a 3 and D wing. If they do improve to fill those roles then they will carry real trade value because they can go to any team and fill a need. Boosting their trade value puts the Celts in better position to trade for a star or other assets (probably more draft picks). Or the Celtics can keep them if they get a star player (best case scenario). The Celtics are not likely to grab a big name free agent this summer. Using that money to lock up these 2 guys was a solid future investment.
Say hello to the Celtics newest member, Amir Johnson. He agreed to a 2 year, 24 Million dollar contract with Boston. Johnson fills an obvious for the Celtics since they badly needed athleticism in the front court. He is a solid defender, the Raptors were better defensively with him on the floor last season (D Rating of 107 vs 108). Johnson doesn't have one elite skill defensively, but he does everything well. He is only 6'9", too undersized to be a legit rim protector. Then again Brad Stevens has a way of getting the best out of each player he coaches. The Celtics are betting that Stevens will maximize Johnson defensive potential. Johnson's biggest struggles are on the offensive end. He doesn't have enough skill or play making ability to attack with the ball. He doesn't have a reliable jump shot outside of the paint. About 85% of his total shots last season came inside the paint. One detail to watch, of that remaining 15% of shots over half of them were 3s, and he hit 40% of them! He took 10 more 3s than he did mid-range jumpers, that's pretty crazy for a guy who rarely shoots jumpers. Look for Stevens to possibly expand on Johnsons 3 point shooting. $12 Million a year is a little too much for Amir Johnson than I would have liked. But the money has to go somewhere, and Johnson provides the defense and athleticism that the Celtics need.
The Celtics probably are not going to grab an A-list free agent this summer. This first day of free agency, as well as the draft, were disappointing. Ainge will continue to grab assets with the hope of one day finding a star to cash them in on. Fans are probably tired of hearing about "asset gathering" by now, but its all the Celtics can do until a star becomes available. Finding a star isn't easy, it can take years. All we know is that the Celtics are in a good position to get a star if one becomes available. They have assets for a trade and cap flexibility to pay a max contract. Now all we can do is wait. Wait for a star to become upset and want a trade, or bolt in free agency where the Celtics have not exactly had the luck of the Irish. Or wait for one of the Celtics many draft picks to produce an upcoming star. The C's secured a few more assets after free agency's first day, a small ray of light in what will probably be a disappointing summer. Ainge promised fireworks this off-season, but Celtics fans will just have to wait for the 4th to see em'.
All stats and info from NBA.com and Basketball-reference.com
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