That's a Wrap BoSox

           

           After a promising run right before the All Star break which saw the Red Sox go 13-8 coming within four games of the division leading Yankees and only five games under .500, Boston is back to their inconsistent ways. The Sox started the second half of the season by dropping four straight games and getting out scored by a staggering 22-4 margin while being shut out twice. So what now? Being nine games under .500 all but eliminates Boston from the wild card race with far to many teams to leap frog, making winning the division the only hope for October baseball. Hard to imagine while also being nine games behind the Yankees. Even if a miracle happened the only likely outcome for the team would be to fight to avoid getting swept in the ALDS.

           

            So what are Boston fans in for in the next few months? A lot more mediocre baseball riddled with flashes of “what could have been” followed by losing streaks where the team struggles to hit, score, and pitch.  More importantly what will the Sox be doing at the trade deadline? For one thing the Red Sox are strapped with some extremely bad contracts that will be almost impossible to move. No expecting a mass exodus that occurred in 2012 when the team sent Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and their $250 million to the Dodgers.

           

            David Ortiz has a club option next year for $10 million which the Sox would find hard to pick up, however if he reaches a certain amount of plate appearances this season his option will be picked up automatically. Here is how that breaks down.

425 plate appearances: $11 million

475 plate appearances: $12 million

525 plate appearances: $13 million

550 plate appearances: $14 million

575 plate appearances: $15 million

600 plate appearances: $16 million

So let us all just hope we see a lot less of Ortiz this year, and a much hungrier and more energized Ortiz in 2016.

Absolutely no one in the league would be stupid enough to take on Rick Porcello and his horrendous contract that the Red Sox front office foolishly dished out to him before his first start. Porcello’s league worst 5.79 ERA hardly calls for his $12.5 million contract but to make matters worse next season that number balloons up to $20 million until 2018 when it makes another jump to $21 million until 2020 when he is back on the free agent market. The only hope for the Red Sox faithful regarding Porcello is that he lives up to his big money contract, or at least shows enough that a team would be willing to take a gamble on him towards the back end of his contract when the Sox would be able to eat up some of that money.

One of the Sox other free agent signings this year hasn’t been a complete disappointment so far. Hanley Ramirez is leading the team in home runs and before his July slump was batting .281. His $19 million salary which bumps up to $22 million from 2016 to 2019 is not ideal, but if he can provide power in the middle of the order and stay relatively healthy there is no reason he can’t be the DH of the future for Boston. Worst case scenario that contract is not completely unmovable in the future because some contender would be willing to pay big money for a power bat in their line up.

Pablo Sandoval’s contract is much like Ramirez’s but a little cheaper topping out at $18 million with a buyout opportunity in 2020 for $5 million. Sometimes adjusting to Boston is tough for players, just ask Carl Crawford, but I figured coming from San Francisco it wouldn’t be too big of a challenge. We will just chalk up Sandoval’s season as a wash because even if he turned out ridiculous offensive numbers the team probably would be in no better shape. No more pressure this year Pablo, just get your swings in and maybe some reps at first base and come back next year ready to win.

As for the other three additions to the starting rotations:

Justin Masterson will thankfully be off the books next year and by the looks of it he might have to settle for a minor league contract somewhere else next season. Low risk/ High reward move in the offseason that obviously didn't work out, oh well. 

Joe Kelly will be under team control until 2019, making very cheap money (2015 salary $603,000). Might as well hold on to him considering many say he has the best pure stuff on the team. He is young and could turn it around in the upcoming years but the team certainly can’t rely on him carrying the staff.

Wade Miley’s contract steadily increases from $3.5 million to $12.5 million over the next four years. Definitely not a front end of the rotation guy but has shown glimmers of hope throughout the year. He could have a future in the rotation with a relatively affordable contract.

One player from the 2013 title winning team that will not be around to see the team turn back into a contender is Mike Napoli. Its hard to dislike the Italian Stallion but there is no argung with his .198 average and lack of power totaling only 10 home runs. He has hit the ball hard at times and it always seems to be right at the defense, not his fault but those are the breaks you get sometimes. Thank you for being part of the bearded brothers and embracing this city, but sadly come August 1^st and the passing of the deadline if he is not traded to another team it would not be surprising if the team out right releases Napoli.

The Red Sox do have a young core of players under team control until at least 2020 for very little money. Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and Eduardo Rodriguez all have some growing to do but have all shown they could be the future of this club. Sprinkle that in with some talented veterans like Sandoval, Ramirez, and Pedroia the Sox could have a bright future.

            Boston needs to be sellers at the deadline, clearing as much money as they can. David Price and Jonny Cueto will be free agents after the season and while the team probably won’t be in the race for them during the deadline at the risk of trading prospects just to lose them in the offseason, they must be able to make serious offers to them on the free agent market. So outside the young core players the team hopes to build around, it would be safe to assume that no one is safe at the deadline even though it would be hard to imagine the front office finding suitors for some of the expensive contracts.

Contract info thanks to Rotoworld.com

Ainge Makes a Few Low Risk/ High Reward Deals

The Celtics have made a couple trades in the past week or so. Here is a look at why they made them, and what they mean for next season

Last week the Celtics finally rid themselves of Gerald Wallace's god awful contract. Here's a summary of what this trade means for the Celtics and the Warriors.

Here are the details of the trade,
Celtics Receive- David Lee ($15,493,680 remaining 1 year)

Warriors Receive- Gerald Wallace ($10,105,855 remaining 1 year)


It was no secret that the Warriors were looking to trade Lee to free up money to pay Draymond Green that 5 year $82 Million deal he just signed. Being a championship team usually comes with a high payroll. The Warriors are no different , they will be over the luxury tax line next season. This deal was made to cut their luxury tax bill. The Warriors can, and probably will, use the stretch provision to waive Wallace and stretch his cap hit out over 3 seasons. The stretch provision allows a team to waive a player and stretch his remaining salary out over double his remaining years plus another year. For example, Wallace is owed $10,000,000 this year, the stretch provision allows that amount to be paid over 3 years (1 year doubled is 2 years, plus 1 makes 3 years) at $3.3 Million a year. By my calculations this could save the Warriors about $13 Million in tax payments. Golden State had obvious .

The Celtics don't have to worry about paying a tax bill because they are well under tax line, and they currently under the cap as well. Taking that extra $5 Million doesn't hurt them nearly as much. Lee is a better player than Wallace, but he adds to an already crowded front court. He does help the Celtics win games now, but the Celts are rebuilding. Lee will likely leave after this last year on his contract. He isn't a long term piece at the age of 32. So why would the Celtics just take David Lee's contract off the Warriors hands? What the Celtics are hoping, is that Lee can boost his trade value to grab another asset at the trade deadline. A low risk/ high reward move similar to the signing of Evan Turner. Brad Stevens has a way of getting the most out of his players, if Lee improves then he could be worth a draft pick. If you connect the dots that would mean the Celtics could get a draft pick out of Gerald Wallace, and that's what Ainge is hoping he can do. If it doesn't work out and the Cs can't trade Lee, then they're in the same place as they would have been with Wallace. Solid move right? Still, Ainge had leverage over the Warriors in this deal. I would have liked to see him grab a second round pick as well as Lee. Keep an eye out for trade talks involving Lee during this season. Until then enjoy him while hes here, I always thought David Lee would make a great Celtic.

Earlier this week the Celtics acquired Perry Jones from the Thunder. 

Here are the details of the trade,
Celtics Receive- Perry Jones ($5,000,000 remaining 2 years), 2019 second round pick, cash

Thunder Receive- Protected 2018 second round pick, trade exception


This is also a cost cutting move for the Thunder. Like the Warriors, the Thunder will be over the luxury tax line next season and will have to pay a hefty tax bill. After signing Enes Kanter for $70 Million, they were looking to reduce their tax hit in any way possible. While they didn't want to let Jones go, trading him for no cap hit in return saves the Thunder about $5 Million. And the trade exception gives them flexibility to make another deal in the future.

This is another instance of the Celtics preying on a team that is trying to reduce its tax bill. The Cs are willing to help save the Thunder money as long as they get something in return. Ainge loves Perry Jones, he wanted him in the 2011 draft, but he decided to take Fab Melo instead. Jones is 23, and hes shown enough upside for the Celtics to take a gamble on him. Then again, they gave up just about nothing in return, just a future conditional second rounder. Grabbing a guy who was drafted in the first round is great return for that asset. Jones may be seen as a future piece for the Celts, we will have to see how he develops under Stevens.


Both of these moves were textbook low risk/ high reward gambles for the Celtics. Both trade partners were desperately trying to save money on their tax bill. The Celtics are willing to take on a little extra salary, since they are not over the cap and have money to spend. They will take the money off other teams hands if they get something small in return. The Celtics have everything to gain from these trades. If Lee becomes a draft pick, or Perry Jones becomes a rotation player, great. If not they gave up nothing for these guys anyway, and they're back in the same spot. I'd say both of these deals were definitely worth the gamble, now lets just hope they pay off.


All info from Real GM

        

Free Agency Day 1

   
     The first day of free agency is always hectic, but this year it was insane. Nearly every top free agent signed or agreed to sign within the first 24 hours. In the midst of this frenzy, the Celtics were able to re-sign forwards Jonas Jerebko and Jae Crowder. They were also able to add another big in Amir Johnson. Lets have a look at each of these signings, and look forward to what they mean for the Celtics future.

     Swedish born Jonas Jerebko agreed to a 2-year, 10 Million dollar contract with the Celtics. He played 29 games for the Celtics last year after being traded by the Pistons. He's a stretch 4 in the making, and in todays NBA having a big who can stretch defenses to the perimeter is essential. He shot over 40% from deep last year while wearing Celtic green, a solid number for a stretch big. He lacks the size of a traditional power forward, but he still rebounds at an average rate, grabbing about 13% of all misses while on the floor. Jerebko also doesn't sacrifice anything on the defensive end either, in fact the Celtics were much better defensively with him on the floor. Last season with Jerebko on the floor the Celtics defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) was 97.8, a mark which would have led the league. When Jerebko sits, that number shoots up to 105.7, that number would be one of the 5 worst in the league. Those stats may be a little skewed since he only played about 500 minutes for Boston, but even so those numbers are staggering. The point here is that Jerebko shows promise to be a legit NBA stretch 4, and to have that at 5 million a year is a steal, especially with the cap going up next year. The salary cap is projected to make a leap from about 69 Million this upcoming season, to 90 Million next summer. I will gladly welcome back Swedish Larry Bird.   

     Jae Crowder fits another popular NBA prototype, hes a 3 and D role player. Wings who can shoot 3's to space the floor and defend multiple positions are in higher demand than ever in todays pace and space NBA. Crowder isn't the greatest 3 point shooter, he shot under 30% from 3 for the Celtics last season after being traded away from the Mavs. But his shot isn't bad it just needs some improvement. The C's are betting that with some work in the off season Crowder can become an above average 3 point shooter. Crowder is definitely an above average defender, due to his length and quickness. He guards his own position well, and has shown that he may be quick enough to switch onto guards. 5 years, $35 Million may seem like a lot for Crowder on the surface, but the cap is projected to leap to $90 Million in the summer of 2016. How will Crowders contract look then when its less than 1/10th of the cap? If he improves to become a legit 3 and D wing, then his value definitely exceeds $7 Million a year. DeMarre Carroll just got $60 Million over 4 year to be the player that Crowder might become. I used the phrase "might be" a lot to describe Crowder, but the Celtics are confident in his improvement. This contract will look better next year, and it will be very trade-able in the future.  

     The Celtics are trying to turn Jerebko and Crowder into legitimate assets for the future. These contracts are bets that Jerebko can become a legit NBA stretch 4, and Crowder a 3 and D wing. If they do improve to fill those roles then they will carry real trade value because they can go to any team and fill a need. Boosting their trade value puts the Celts in better position to trade for a star or other assets (probably more draft picks). Or the Celtics can keep them if they get a star player (best case scenario). The Celtics are not likely to grab a big name free agent this summer. Using that money to lock up these 2 guys was a solid future investment.

     Say hello to the Celtics newest member, Amir Johnson. He agreed to a 2 year, 24 Million dollar contract with Boston. Johnson fills an obvious for the Celtics since they badly needed athleticism in the front court. He is a solid defender, the Raptors were better defensively with him on the floor last season (D Rating of 107 vs 108). Johnson doesn't have one elite skill defensively, but he does everything well. He is only 6'9", too undersized to be a legit rim protector. Then again Brad Stevens has a way of getting the best out of each player he coaches. The Celtics are betting that Stevens will maximize Johnson defensive potential. Johnson's biggest struggles are on the offensive end. He doesn't have enough skill or play making ability to attack with the ball. He doesn't have a reliable jump shot outside of the paint. About 85% of his total shots last season came inside the paint. One detail to watch, of that remaining 15% of shots over half of them were 3s, and he hit 40% of them! He took 10 more 3s than he did mid-range jumpers, that's pretty crazy for a guy who rarely shoots jumpers. Look for Stevens to possibly expand on Johnsons 3 point shooting. $12 Million a year is a little too much for Amir Johnson than I would have liked. But the money has to go somewhere, and Johnson provides the defense and athleticism that the Celtics need.   

     The Celtics probably are not going to grab an A-list free agent this summer. This first day of free agency, as well as the draft, were disappointing. Ainge will continue to grab assets with the hope of one day finding a star to cash them in on. Fans are probably tired of hearing about "asset gathering" by now, but its all the Celtics can do until a star becomes available. Finding a star isn't easy, it can take years. All we know is that the Celtics are in a good position to get a star if one becomes available. They have assets for a trade and cap flexibility to pay a max contract. Now all we can do is wait. Wait for a star to become upset and want a trade, or bolt in free agency where the Celtics have not exactly had the luck of the Irish. Or wait for one of the Celtics many draft picks to produce an upcoming star. The C's secured a few more assets after free agency's first day, a small ray of light in what will probably be a disappointing summer. Ainge promised fireworks this off-season, but Celtics fans will just have to wait for the 4th to see em'.             

All stats and info from NBA.com and Basketball-reference.com

                

What is Up with the Sox

What is the deal with the Sox?

When is this team with a $166,770,400 payroll going to turn it around and compete in this division where the other four teams are within one game of each other? It is mind blowing to think that with the fourth highest payroll in the league, and having $100,000,000 more on the books than a Tampa Bay team who has made more with less than I have ever seen, the Sox are eight games under .500 and seven games out of the division.

            Boston is in the bottom half of the American League in home runs, average, runs, and RBI’s despite having a lineup that includes David Ortiz, Mike Napoli, Dustin Pedroia, Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez. Having the fifth most hits in the AL is sort of a bright spot showing that the opportunities are definitely there but the team is just under performing right now.

           

Not all players have been a huge disappointment this season though, and a big reason for that is our middle infield. Dustin Pedroia is playing his typical scrappy game, with a stat line of .306/.367/.452 to go along with 9 homers and 33 RBI’s. This season may finally be the breakout year for the young Aruban star striking the impressive stat line of .294/.327/.409 with 3 home runs and 33 RBI’s. Hanley has done his part as well belting a team leading 15 home runs and a .282 average, but here comes the injuries. His talent has never been a question but his ability to stay healthy over the course of a season has always been an issue. Just ask Florida (now Miami) and the Dodgers. As for the Kung fu Panda, his hot start fizzled and while he is not playing badly, he is definitely not living up to the big money contract he so happily signed. These batting woes are nothing compared to our pitching issues so far.

            Going into the season it was known that our pitching was going to be a weakness of the team; no one imagined it would turn into this much of disaster though. With a league worst 4.38 ERA and a BAA of .265 it is no question that the magic John Farrell used to work is no longer present, leading to the firing of highly regarded pitching coach Juan Nieves. Three of the starters have ERA’s north of 5 (Porcello 5.54, Masterson 5.58, Kelly 5.67) with Porcello making over $20,000,000 this year. Anyone miss John Lackey’s scowling face now? I know I do.

           

The young lefty Eduardo Rodriguez who had a 0.50 ERA through his first three career starts has now ballooned over four runs, which was to be expected from a young rookie. It is clear that the rotation needs more than the energy of a young pitcher if the Sox want to make a second half push and win the division, which to me is still very winnable. Buchholz has shown flashes of Cy Young stuff but tends to follow up that start with a disaster performance that has me swearing uncontrollably at the TV. Masterson returned to the rotation Sunday with five shut out innings against the Rays so let us all just hope and pray he may return to his 2011 form.

So with all of this bad news how is it possible I still believe this team could make a push and actually win this division? Faith. And maybe a little luck. Taking a quick look at the other teams in the division it is possible to see that Boston could in fact make a run. Tampa Bay may have one of the best pitching staffs in the league, but their offense has scored the third lowest amount of runs which could pose a serious issue if their young pitchers start to struggle and without John Maddon pulling rabbits out of his hat, I could see that young team start to fall after the break.

The damn Yankees leading the division has to be one of the most painful things to see again because although we have struggled two out of the last three seasons it was comforting knowing they were right there with Boston. Tanaka is clearly not the same pitcher and is one pitch away from ending his season, not that I would ever root for a player to hurt themselves, and Sabathia is no longer even a decent fifth starter anymore.  That Yankees offense is back to being the bombers though second in the league in homers but it may be safe to bet that A-roid, Teixeira, and McCann could start to slow down come August.

Toronto has a potent offense that is filled with sluggers but their pitching is definitely suspect lead by the knuckleballer RA Dickey and their back end of their bullpen has been more than unreliable. Baltimore is the team that could give us the most trouble in winning this division. An all around solid team both offensively and with their pitching, led by Buck Showalter it would be hard to see this team crumbling.

The Red Sox are seven games back but the door is definitely open for them and they are trending upwards heading into the All-Star break, going 3-1 during their last road trip. If they can finish strong and pull off some trades to help bolster their rotation, cough Cueto cough, than they could find themselves in the hunt. A lot of the pressure would fall on their leaders in Ortiz, Pedroia, and Napoli along with some spark out of their younger players Betts and Bogaerts. If all those pieces don’t fall into place I would not be surprised if some familiar players such as Napoli, Buchholz, and Uehara aren’t seen around Fenway and some of their staff start to come under fire. Sorry Farrell you can only do so much.

A Celtics Draft Recap

With the 2015 NBA draft in the rear-view mirror, here's a recap of what the Celtics were able to accomplish.

     The draft is obviously one of the best opportunities for a team to add talent to its roster. And while the Celtics exceeded expectations this season, its roster could still use some serious work. The Celtics owned four picks in this years draft; the 16th, the 28th, 33rd, and the 45th. Before draft night it was clear that Ainge was attempting to trade up into the top 10 picks. Almost all of the players on the Celtics radar were not falling to 16, and the C's were ready to put its vault of future draft picks on the table if the opportunity to move up became available. Well, it never did, at least not at the right price. At the end of the night the Celtics had kept its own picks, using them to draft Terry Rozier, R.J. Hunter, Jordan Mickey, and Marcus Thornton. Sad to say this was definitely the worst case scenario for the Celtics, they didn't move up and none of their desired pick fell. When the smoke cleared Celtics fans were left disappointed, and rightfully so.

     Before draft night the Celtics had already looked at many different trade options. One rumored offer was focused around Marcus Smart and the 16th pick to the 76ers for Nerlens Noel and the 3rd pick. It is unclear whether this rumor is true but the Celtics were actively trying to move up in this draft into any spot they could find available. It is also unclear who the Celtics would be interested in had they traded up that high. However, there was a short list of players whom the Celtics were interested in drafting, that list included Willie Cauley-Stein, Miles Turner, and Trey Lyles. All three of those players fit what is probably the Celtics biggest need, athleticism in the front court. The Celtics have little to no rim protection on their roster and they were hoping one of these three could fill that void. Cauley-Stein was probably the best bet to do that, 7'1" and insanely athletic he's a natural shot blocker. Cauley-Stein is also versatile enough to switch onto ball handlers, a very important skill in todays NBA. With more teams moving toward a Spurs-like spread pick and roll offensive scheme, having defenders to negate that by switching pick and rolls is very valuable. Cauley-Stein would have been a great fit for the Celtics, there was some suspicion that he could fall to reachable on the day of the draft, and then the Kings broke those dreams by taking him at 6.

     Along with rim protection the Celtics were also looking to add wing scoring in this draft. Two names that come to mind are Stanley Johnson and Justice Winslow. To have a chance at either of these players the Celtics would have to move into the top 10, and that is what they tried to do. The Celtics best chance of moving up was with the Charlotte Hornets who owned the 9th pick. With Justice Winslow still on the board the Celtics offered 4 first round picks and 2 second round picks to Charlotte for the 9th which would have been used to draft Winslow, who was blatantly falling too far down the draft. That offer probably included every Celtic pick this year, a Brooklyn pick, and another future fist. That's an insane offer for the 9th overall. It's even crazier the Hornets turned it down because Michael Jordan, the teams owner, loves Frank Kaminsky too much to pass up on him. Kaminsky went 9th and Winslow next to the Heat at 10. Devastation. The Celtics also reportedly called about every pick 4-10 as well but couldn't get anything to develop. After that the Celtics were stuck at 16, watching helplessly as Turner, Lyles, and Kelly Oubre whom the Celtics were interested in, all left the board. Leaving the Celtics to pick what they liked from their secondary candidates.    

     Now lets get to the Celtics draftees. Terry Rozier is a 21 year old guard out of Louisville. Rozier is  6'2" 190 lbs, he has legit NBA size at his position. Along with that size he is quick on his feet and competitive as hell, he's a promising young defender. But the Celtics already have a better version of everything that Rozier is with Marcus Smart. By the way the Celtics are not trading Smart anytime soon, they see him as the only long term piece currently on the roster. He likely isn't leaving unless its for something big in return. This pick proves that Ainge definitely has a type, he likes these feisty, competitive, defensive guards. Celtics fans will probably like Rozier for all the same reason they like Smart, but he doesn't fill a team need. The Celtics need a ball handling, offensively skilled point guard to pair with Smart, unless they think Isiah Thomas is that long term piece. This pick doesn't make sense in the long term, but as mentioned before the Celtics were out of options. There wasn't much talent left at pick 16 and the Celtics decided to go with a type of player that the organization is comfortable with.

     Everyone remembers Georgia State's R.J. Hunter hit that game winning shot against Baylor in the tournament, or more likely his dad falling out of that stool. R.J. is a 6'6" 2 guard and a pure shooter. Any team could use shooting on the wing to help space the floor. He was a good pick for where the Celtics got him at 28. But similar to Rozier, his skill set also overlaps a player the C's drafted last year, James Young. Young is also a wing with a nice shooting stroke. While he didn't get many minutes last season the Celtics like James Young, and want to give him a bigger role in the rotation. That makes it nearly impossible to squeeze Hunter in between Bradley, Turner, Crowder (if he stays), and Young. So why draft another wing shooter? Because you can really never have too many. Maybe drafting Hunter was a way to motivate Young to stay hungry for his roster spot. We can't be sure what the Celtics plan to do with all these guards they're stuck with now. All that is certain is that Ainge liked last years draft so much that he decided to run it back this year.

     The Celtics other two draft picks came in the second round. Jordan Mickey offers some potential shot blocking out of LSU. He is a little undersized for an NBA big at 6'8", but he is an explosive athlete. Mickey is a great leaper who can block shots and finish lobs at the rim. He also offers a solid mid-range jump shot, similar to the Celtics other great mid-range shooting big from LSU, Brandon Bass. If Mickey hones in that athleticism he could be a better Brandon Wright. Marcus Thornton, out of William & Mary, is a late round gamble. He could play either guard position in college but it's unclear if his athleticism will translate to the NBA. The Celtics are unlikely to sign all 4 draft picks, so these two guys will really have to thrive in the summer league to earn a roster spot.    

     The draft can be cruel. You could argue that by pushing to make the playoffs that the Celtics shot themselves in the foot. Getting that 7th seed pushed them to the 16th overall pick, whereas they could have tanked to miss the playoffs and likely have a pick around the 11-15 area. Would the Hornets have taken the Celtics trade offer if it was the 13th pick instead of 16, knowing that Kaminsky might fall that far anyway? That argument is easy to make now that we know the outcome, that it costed the Celtics a shot at Justice Winslow. But at the time fans would have killed them if they sat players to purposely lose, and coach Brad Stevens would have been outraged. Playoff experience matters, the question is did it matter enough to cost us a chance at Winslow? We will never know the answer, the NBA is a world of "what if".  

     The C's will still be looking for that their star player to build around. They still need a rim protector and a wing scorer. They are now forced to turn to free agency to fill those team needs. This draft will be remembered as a missed opportunity, but it wasn't  due to lack of effort.